Prediction of Climate Change Impact on Monthly River Discharge’s Trend using IHACRES hydrological model (Case Study: Galikesh Watershed)

Document Type : Research Paper


AClimate change causes change in temperature and rainfall and consequently affects river discharge. Changes in rainfall can be simulated by global circulation models under different climatic scenarios but investigations of changes in river discharge require rainfall-runoff models. The Galikesh basin as one of most flood prone basins in Gloestan Province is considered for determination of changes in river discharge under climate change effect. Temperature and rainfall is produced for future climatic period (2011-2030) based on global circulation model HADCM3, using LARS-WG data generator model. The produced data under different climatic scenario are used as inputs of calibrated IHACRES model to simulate river discharge for future climatic periods. The climate change analysis shows under different scenarios in the study area air temperature increase in different months, which a rise in warm months is more than other months of the year, but the annual precipitation decreases. The Mann-Kendall test is used to detect monotonic trend of seasonal and semiannual river discharge series. The results indicate no trend for spring and first semiannual and negative trend for other seasons and second semiannual series in 5 percent significance level.


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